Tuesday, May 5, 2009

How does the orkut fortune teller work?

There is this feature called "Today's fortune" which google's orkut has been faithfully displaying all these years. I know at least a couple of orkut fans who religiously believe in the validity of this oracle. But most of the people do not even bother to take a look at it and even if they do, they consider it as yet another fun gadget that google provides.

But at times I have felt that google's prediction reflects to some extent how my day went. How in fact does this orkut prophet work? Do they use some complex astrological algorithm which uses date of birth provided by the user in his/her account to generate the one line prophecy? A little bit of googling, made me aware of the fact that there are astrology softwares like SolarFire, AstrolDeluxe and Astrolog (which is an OSS) that perform numerical and planetary computations to generate horoscopes and natal charts.

Or is it a mere eye wash? Do they just have a huge inventory of sooth-sayings which they randomly pick daily for each profile? I have never seen their prophecy repeat too frequently. Is it because the list is too huge that the probability of a close repeat is infinitesimal? But isn't astronomy a probabilistic science? Is it really a science? Studies have repeatedly failed to demonstrate statistically significant relationships between astrological predictions and operationally-defined outcomes. But to the dismay and enragement of many rationalists in the country, Indian courts have supported Jyotir Vigyan (Vedic Astrology) as a university science subject. If so, can a suitable random number generator fine tuned to reduce the number of false positives and false negatives, and seeded by a value that is a function of the date and time of birth, and the current time and day qualify to be a good fortune picker?

Without digressing further, let us look at some of the sooth-saying that orkut had in store for me over the past few days:

Toil to make yourself remarkable by some talent or other.
If you're never scared or embarrassed or hurt, it means you never take any chances.
Start reading a book today.
If you want to be loved, be lovable.
Do something good for someone today.
A friend asks only for your time not money.
Don't let friends impose on you. Work calmly and silently.
Hope is necessary in every condition.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.

And I got a few funny ones like these too.

The guy who reads your fortune was fired. Until we hire a new guy, go visit a friend’s album.
The guy who reads your fortune is on vacation. We don’t know what to say… Go visit someone’s profile.
The guy who reads your fortune is sleeping. Don’t wake him up.

Er, why should I rack my brain over how google provides these "divinations"?
Isn't it high time that google rename this app to "Thought for the day"?

10 comments:

  1. As one can imagine, they are probably (pseudo)randomly selected from some very large set of "fortunes". The fact that they seem to work is because they play on two aspects of human nature: Firstly is our innate ability to seek patterns in chaos, sometimes even when there are none---called Apophenia. This is more likely if we apriori know what we're trying to see. The Wikipedia article on this subject explains more. Secondly, is something known as Confirmation Bias, which states that subconsciously we try to find evidence /supporting/ a hypothesis, when scientifically speaking we must be doing the opposite, i.e., seeking evidence /against/ a hypothesis. That's why we find several instances when the fortune was "correct", but we never actively look about disproving it. That's just my 2 cents on a very boring Wednesday :-)

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  2. Very true. It is the inherent human proclivity to seek conformation rather than refutation, to have a sense of control over outcomes and tendency to hold to comforting beliefs that have lead to the development and thriving of various pseudosciences that contravene the basic "testability" requirement of science.

    Thanks for pointing me to some really interesting articles in Wikipedia.

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  3. they have a bunch of these sayings n they repeat as well..
    i got a few repeats n i ve observed others sometiems et what i get..

    but yeah like ananth says i think we like to belive it fits so we force fit :P

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  4. "Force fit" - Nice way of putting it, Twilight Fairy :)

    For the record, I was pointed to a Wikipedia link on "Forer effect" offline by a friend of mine who read the post... A demonstration and explanation for the acceptance of many of these beliefs can be found at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Forer_effect

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  5. You never get a fortune out of it so stopped following orkut fortune teller :)
    And ya it does repeat... even some of the ones you have listed here i have seen earlier in mine...

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  6. @Arjun: Not just orkut fortune teller, i guess none of the fortune tellers are worth following...
    And I dunno whats with these new funny fortunes that orkut is displaying recently...

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  7. Guess its just to make it look different than other fortune tellers and most of us get those time to time... They themselves are telling that this addition to orkut is crap :)

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  8. I am sure they don't even bother with your birthday when generating the random fortunes. Statistically speaking, it shouldn't make any difference.

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  9. I think Orkut fortunes are no different from old fashioned Fortune Cookies. Both of them have the same content- generic statements that are applicable to multiple scenarios, usually with a feel good factor.

    It would be nice if they had a logic behind it though. But I doubt it.

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  10. i think i like wolverine's opinion...
    it's just like Fortune Cookie line....

    even you get fortunes like "Today you'll get a fortune cookie you have never got before" :)

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